To solve the problem of mode share change
of high-speed railways and civil aviation in middle-and-long distance passenger
transport, taking the heterogeneity among passenger groups and the relevance of
passenger choices in different scenarios into consideration, the Panel Mixed
Logit(PML) model was established, which taking gender, age, and monthly income
of passengers as basic property, the cost and time before ,after and during the
trip as specific property. NLOGIT was used to estimate the parameters of
Traditional Logit, Cross-sectional Mixed Logit, and Panel Mixed Logit models
based on the stated preference data of passenger in Beijing-Nanjing transport
corridor. Model estimation results show that the PML model has better behavior
interpretation capabilities and prediction accuracy. Based on PML model, the
simulation method was used to predict the trend of mode share of high-speed
railways and civil aviation along with the changes of trip cost and time. The
results show that the high-speed railways mode share ratio increases with the increase
of trip cost difference value and decreases with the increase of trip time
difference value; which is the opposite for civil aviation. It also shows that
the trip cost difference value has a more significant effect on the mode share
than the trip time difference value.