关键词: 城市购物出发时间, 连续时间模型, 非参数生存分析

Abstract:

      We addressed distribution characteristic of departure time of urban shopping trips based on the travel data of Jinan in 2011. We established its duration model with survival analysis method. We also estimated the duration time of shopping trips with a nonparametric method. We further discussed the impacts of departure time distribution of shopping trips and individual socialdemographic properties on departure time of urban shopping trips. Results show that 5.4% of the total samples depart for shopping before 7:00, 69.7% between 7:00 and 10:00, and less than 24.9% after 10:00. Gender, age and children amount of a family have significant impacts on departure time: females are early than males in departure time; elders are easier to go shopping at nonpeak hours; departure time is more flexible for a nochild family. Our results can provide an accurate and effective analysis tool for quantitative investigation of departure time of shopping trips and have guiding significance for the control of traffic congestion through dynamic pricing mechanism.

Key words: continuous time model, departure time of urban shopping trips, nonparametric survival analysis