Abstract:

       We constructed a negative binomial regression based expressway traffic accidents temporalspatial analysis model from nine independent variables in time and space domains to analyze the impacts of expressway horizontal and vertical alignments and other traffic related factors on traffic safety. We then perform model fitting and test, taking a typical dangerous expressway section as an example. Results show that the negative binomial regression based expressway traffic accidents temporalspatial analysis model has better fitting effect. Accident rate is positively relative to curve proportion and cumulative effect of continuous downhill, while negatively relative to mean gradient and large car proportion.

Key words: traffic engineering, expressway traffic accidents, negative binomial regression, temporalspatial analysis model