京杭运河航运与沿河区域经济的互动关系研究

doi:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2022.04.016

Abstract

Abstract:

To study the interactions between the development of inland navigation, the waterfront regional economy, and industrial development as exemplified by the Subei Canal, this study used the gray correlation degree calculation and cointegration test methods to discuss the correlation and long-run equilibrium relationship between the Subei Canal, the regional economy, and industrial structure along the waterways. Further, it explores the direction of the influence of their interactions through causal analysis, studying the current and future degree of mutual influence of inland navigation on the waterfront regional economy by way of vector autoregression. Finally, an industrial park along the waterways was selected to analyze the actual interaction effects. The findings reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Subei Canal and the economic growth and development of the secondary industry in the waterway region. The secondary industry in the area along the Subei Canal is the most supportive of the development of canal shipping. Inland shipping meets industrial demands for cargo transportation. The resumption of navigation on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal(north of the Yellow River)can achieve a virtuous circle that promotes both the economy and industry of the waterfront area. This research is beneficial to unlock the potential of regional economic development along the canal. It provides a reference for the planning and design of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal(north of the Yellow River)and the area along the waterways.

Key words: Beijing-Hangzhou Canal, inland waterway transport, regional economy, gray degree, synergy

CLC Number:

CHEN Qian-yang, DONG Si-yuan, ZHU Xiao-lei. Interactions between shipping on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal and the waterfront regional economy[J].Shandong Science, 2022, 35(4): 126-135.

Figures/Tables 12

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指标	检验类型(常数项,趋势项)	ADF统计量	P值	检验结果
ln G	(c,t)	-1.658 8	0.741 5	不平稳
ln X₁	(c,0)	-1.647 8	0.445 3	不平稳
ln X₂	(0,0)	1.395 7	0.955 3	不平稳
ln X₃	(c,0)	-1.147 6	0.680 1	不平稳
ln T	(c,0)	-1.828 1	0.359 0	不平稳

指标	检验类型(常数项,趋势项)	ADF统计量	1%临界值	检验结果
Dln G	(c,0)	-4.705 2^***	-3.711 5	ln G~ I(1)
Dln X₁	(c,0)	-7.277 0^***	-3.711 5	ln X₁~ I(1)
Dln X₂	(c,0)	-8.107 7^***	-3.711 5	ln X₂~ I(1)
Dln X₃	(c,0)	-5.327 4^***	-3.724 1	ln X₃~ I(1)
Dln T	(c,0)	-7.422 0^***	-3.724 1	ln T ~ I(1)

指标	滞后阶数	对数似然值	似然比	最终预测误差	AIC	SC	HQ
Dln T与Dln G	1	69.684 7	—	1.79×10^-5*	-5.254 8^*	-5.059 8^*	-5.200 7^*
	2	71.593 9	3.207 4	2.13×10^-5	-5.087 5	-4.697 5	-4.979 3
ln T与ln X₂	1	71.057 4	—	1.97×10^-5*	-5.158 3^*	-4.964 7^*	-5.102 5^*
	2	73.780 6	4.608 5	2.19×10^-5	-5.060 1	-4.672 9	-4.948 6

指标	假设	特征值	检验统计值	5%临界值	概率值
Dln T	None^*	0.726 0	45.272 3	15.494 7	0.000 0
Dln G	At most 1^*	0.403 3	12.908 7	3.841 5	0.000 3
ln T	None^*	0.634 0	21.609 2	15.494 7	0.005 3
ln X₂	At most 1	0.123 9	2.513 3	3.841 5	0.112 9

零假设	最优滞后期	F统计值	P值
ln G不是ln T的格兰杰原因	1	3.230 2	0.084 9
ln T不是ln G的格兰杰原因	1	8.463 7	0.007 7
ln X₂不是ln T的格兰杰原因	1	10.35 7	0.005 0
ln T不是ln X₂的格兰杰原因	1	0.024 3	0.878 0

Interactions between shipping on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal and the waterfront regional economy

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	方程一:ln G=α₁ln G₍_t_-1)+β₁ln T₍_t_-1)+C₁	方程二:ln T=α₂ln G_(t-1)+β₂ln T₍_t_-1)+C₂
α	0.834 0	0.077 4
β	0.041 6	0.900 7
C	0.100 8	0.692 8
R²	0.833 3	0.921 5
调整的R²	0.819 4	0.915 0

	方程三:ln T=α₃ln T₍_t_-1)+β₃ln X₂₍_t_-1)+C₃
α₃	0.028 6
β₃	1.995 5
C₃	3.800 0
R²	0.878 2
调整的R²	0.863 9

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