青藏高原山地区碳储量时空演变与预测—以黄河源区为例

doi:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2025031

Abstract

Abstract: Land-use change, as a key driving force of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, plays a critical role in assessing carbon balance and promoting sustainable development. Based on the land-use change patterns in the source region of the Yellow River in the mountainous areas of the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2020, this study developed an integrated CA-Markov-InVEST-OPGD model to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of land cover and carbon storage, analyze the driving mechanism of carbon-storage changes, and predict the characteristics of carbon storage changes in a natural change scenario in the source region of the Yellow River in 2030. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, grasslands in the source region of the Yellow River declined, while unused land and water areas expanded, leading to an overall reduction in carbon storage, with high-value areas shifting toward the northwest. NDVI, elevation, and temperature were the main factors affecting carbon storage in the region, with NDVI interacting most significantly with temperature, precipitation, and population density. In the natural change scenario in 2030, the grassland area will continue to shrink while the water area will increase significantly. Carbon storage in the east and south will decline significantly, while carbon storage in some areas in the west and north will increase significantly. The overall spatial concentration of carbon storage will tend to decrease, with notable local increases and decreases. Therefore, it is essential to undertake grassland ecological protection and restoration efforts to enhance carbon sink capacity and promote regional carbon balance.

Key words: mountainous areas of the Tibetan Plateau, land use changes, carbon storage, CA-Markov-InVEST-OPGD model

CLC Number:

X144

LI Shan, SHEN Enting, MENG Yingpeng, CHEN Xu. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in the mountainous areas of the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of the source region of the Yellow River [J].Shandong Science, 0, (): 1-.

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Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in the mountainous areas of the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of the source region of the Yellow River

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