河南省农村公路交通经济效益影响因素分析

doi:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2023.03.014

Abstract

Abstract:

To effectively improve the traffic economic benefits of rural roads, it is crucial to quantitatively analyze the different impacts of their potential influencing factors. The current study took the rural roads of 1 791 townships across Henan Province between 2016 and 2020 as an example and selected 27 factors influencing the traffic economic benefits of rural highways from four dimensions: basic economy, transportation construction, transportation capacity, and safety and environmental protection. The partial proportional odds model was applied, and the results showed 22 significant factors of which 11 factors violated the parallel-lines assumption. Through the marginal effects of the model, further quantitative analysis of the effects of the significant factors on the traffic economic benefits of rural highways was conducted. Among the factors, the top six influencing factors were daily average travel intensity, road network density, average motor vehicle ownership per household, population density, daily average travel distance, and per capita consumption expenditure. The maximum values of their marginal effects exceeded 13%, indicating that travel demand, construction scale, and economic level had the most remarkable impact on traffic economic benefits. Other factors concerning rural highway operation service and safety and environmental protection had less impact (marginal effects were less than 11%). Based on the different effects observed, several corresponding development countermeasures are propounded to promote sound and rapid development in the traffic economy of rural highways.

Key words: rural roads, traffic economic benefits, influencing factors, partial proportional odds model

CLC Number:

U491.2

SHAN Fei, ZHU Yakun, NIE Shigang, WU Xu. Analysis of factors influencing the traffic economic benefits of rural roads in Henan Province[J].Shandong Science, 2023, 36(3): 115-122.

Figures/Tables 3

Table 1

Potential factors influencing the traffic economic benefits of rural roads and classification and frequency of their variables"

一级变量	二级变量及符号	分类(频率)
一级变量	二级变量及符号	较差	一般	较好	很好
基础经济	>15岁平均受教育年限X₁₁	[0,9) (3 353)	[9,10) (4 419)	[10,11) (951)	[11,23) (232)
	15~59岁占比X₁₂/%	[0,60) (2 562)	[60,63) (4 580)	[63,66) (1 633)	[66,100) (180)
	人口密度X₁₃/(千人·平方公里^-1)	[0,0.5) (3 843)	[0.5,1) (4 024)	[1,2) (922)	[2,10) (166)
	人均生产总值X₁₄/万元	[0,1) (1 338)	[1,5) (4 034)	[5,10) (3 068)	[10,100) (515)
	人均纯收入X₁₅/万元	[0,1) (1 418)	[1,2) (3 910)	[2,3) (2 903)	[3,100) (724)
	人均消费支出 X₁₆/万元	[0,1) (1 746)	[1,1.5) (3 949)	[1.5,2) (2 101)	[2,100) (1 159)
	恩格尔系数 X₁₇	[0.6,1.0) (0)	[0.5,0.6) (159)	[0.4,0.5) (3 515)	[0,0.4) (5 283)
	非农业就业率X₁₈/%	[0,60) (1 283)	[60,70) (3 949)	[70,80) (2 648)	[80,100) (1 075)
	宽带网入户普及率X₁₉/%	[0,75) (1 078)	[75,85) (3 214)	[85,95) (3 479)	[95,100] (1 184)
	户均机动车拥有量X₁₀/辆	[0,0.5) (1 550)	[0.5,0.75) (3 954)	[0.75,0.9) (2 303)	[0.9,3) (1 148)
交通建设	道路硬化率X₂₁/%	[0,90) (578)	[90,94) (2 799)	[94,98) (3 838)	[98,100] (1 740)
	行政村通公路比例X₂₂/%	[0,90) (243)	[90,95) (1 084)	[95,99) (4 315)	[99,100] (3 313)
	路网密度X₂₃/(公里·百平方公里^-1)	[0,10) (133)	[10,30) (1104)	[30,60) (6 088)	[60,100) (1 630)
	道路用地占比X₂₄/%	[0,0.5) (793)	[0.5,1) (2 094)	[1,2) (4 488)	[2,50] (1 580)
	城乡公交覆盖率X₂₅/%	[0,0.8) (182)	[0.8,0.9) (729)	[0.9,0.95) (1 683)	[0.95,1] (6 361)
	路网等级水平 X₂₆	[3,10) (233)	[2,3) (956)	[1,2) (4 798)	[0,1) (2 968)
	路面性能 X₂₇	[0,70) (86)	[70,80) (819)	[80,90) (3 628)	[90,100] (4 422)
	每百公里养护费X₂₈/万元	[0,5) (638)	[5,10) (2 904)	[10,20) (4 211)	[20,100) (1 202)
运输能力	日平均出行强度X₃₁/次	[0,1) (1 118)	[1,1.5) (2 329)	[1.5,2) (4 163)	[2,10) (1 345)
	日平均出行距离X₃₂/km	[0,1) (593)	[1,2) (3 372)	[2,4) (4 368)	[4,10) (622)
	单车道日均流量X₃₃/千辆	[0,0.6) (973)	[0.6,0.8) (2 104)	[0.8,1) (4 822)	[1,2) (1 056)
	高峰饱和度 X₃₄	[0.75,1] (1 396)	[0.6,0.75) (3 324)	[0.4,0.6) (3 063)	[0,0.4) (1 172)
	平均车速X₃₅/(km·h^-1)	[0,20) (623)	[20,30) (3 354)	[30,40) (7 108)	[40,100] (870)
安全环保	路网事故率X₄₁/(次·亿车次公里^-1)	[9,100) (1 141)	[6,9) (2 013)	[3,6) (4 015)	[0,3) (1 786)
	事故整改率X₄₂/%	[60,70) (328)	[70,80) (1 649)	[80,90) (4 858)	[90,100] (2 120)
	百公里油耗 X₄₃/L	[8,20) (943)	[7,8) (3 125)	[6,7) (3 716)	[0,6) (1 171)
	绿化率X₄₄/%	[0,12) (913)	[12,20) (1 804)	[20,30) (3 662)	[30,100) (2 576)

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

变量名称		系数	标准误差	p值	变量名称		系数	标准误差	p值
β	X₁₁	0.013	0.050	*	γ₂	X₁₂	0.006	0.026	**
	X₁₂	0.022	0.031	**		X₁₄	-0.008	0.011	***
	X₁₃	0.091	0.012	***		X₁₅	0.007	0.031	**
	X₁₄	0.030	0.023	**		X₁₆	0.013	0.020	***
	X₁₅	0.009	0.020	**		X₁₀	0.019	0.014	***
	X₁₆	0.085	0.009	***		X₂₁	0.007	0.026	**
	X₁₇	-0.112	—	—		X₂₃	0.013	0.013	***
	X₁₈	0.010	0.053	*		X₃₁	0.019	0.008	***
	X₁₉	0.005	—	—		X₃₂	0.018	0.025	**
	X₁₀	0.113	0.011	***		X₃₃	0.020	0.020	***
	X₂₁	0.014	0.061	*		X₃₄	0.043	0.036	**
	X₂₂	0.008	0.040	**	γ₃	X₁₂	-0.005	0.061	*
	X₂₃	0.111	0.011	***		X₁₄	0.013	0.031	**
	X₂₄	0.032	—	—		X₁₅	0.006	0.030	**
	X₂₅	0.008	0.035	**		X₁₆	0.011	0.015	***
	X₂₆	-0.069	0.052	*		X₁₀	0.015	0.020	**
	X₂₇	0.025	—	—		X₂₁	0.007	0.017	**
	X₂₈	0.013	0.041	**		X₂₃	0.011	0.012	***
	X₃₁	0.127	0.011	***		X₃₁	0.032	0.018	***
	X₃₂	0.088	0.013	***		X₃₂	0.023	0.036	**
	X₃₃	0.077	0.040	**		X₃₃	0.021	0.039	**
	X₃₄	0.069	0.034	**		X₃₄	-0.010	0.029	**
	X₃₅	0.024	0.047	**	τ	τ₁	-0.452	0.017	***
	X₄₁	-0.020	0.015	***		τ₂	-0.581	0.035	**
	X₄₂	0.015	0.021	**		τ₃	-0.623	0.012	***
	X₄₃	0.032	0.010	***
	X₄₄	0.004	—	—

一级指标	二级指标	符号	较差/%	一般/%	较好/%	很好/%
基础经济	>15岁平均受教育年限	X₁₁	-7.22	-1.98	1.48	7.72
	15~59岁占比	X₁₂	-7.34	-3.02	2.26	8.10
	人口密度	X₁₃	-11.53	-11.46	8.55	14.44
	人均生产总值	X₁₄	-7.47	-4.21	3.14	8.54
	人均纯收入	X₁₅	-6.97	-1.71	1.28	7.40
	人均消费支出	X₁₆	-11.84	-4.67	3.49	13.02
	非农业就业率	X₁₈	-3.75	-1.04	0.77	4.02
	户均机动车拥有量	X₁₀	-16.01	-6.52	4.86	17.67
交通建设	道路硬化率	X₂₁	-2.69	-0.97	0.72	2.94
	行政村通公路比例	X₂₂	-2.63	-0.66	0.49	2.80
	路网密度	X₂₃	-16.51	-5.86	4.38	17.99
	城乡公交覆盖率	X₂₅	-3.31	-0.79	0.59	3.51
	路网等级水平	X₂₆	7.53	1.91	-1.44	-8.00
	每百公里养护费	X₂₈	-3.79	-1.05	0.79	4.05
运输能力	日平均出行强度	X₃₁	-17.37	-4.16	3.11	18.42
	日平均出行距离	X₃₂	-12.75	-2.40	1.79	13.36
	单车道日均流量	X₃₃	-9.21	-5.15	3.84	10.52
	高峰饱和度	X₃₄	-9.48	-2.74	2.04	10.18
	平均车速	X₃₅	-8.56	-4.08	3.04	9.60
安全环保	路网事故率	X₄₁	-8.43	-2.90	2.16	9.17
	事故整改率	X₄₂	6.42	1.07	-1.44	-6.05
	百公里油耗	X₄₃	-9.72	-4.47	3.33	10.86

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Analysis of factors influencing the traffic economic benefits of rural roads in Henan Province

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