基于NL模型的北京公共交通票价对出行方式影响研究

doi:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2019.02.011

Abstract

Abstract: Stated preference(SP) survey has been conducted to explore the factors which are more passengers′ concerns when choosing traffic modes. With the comparative analysis of the multinomial logit(MNL) model and nest logit(NL) model, the NL model was selected due to its better performance on mode choice modeling. Taking Beijing as a case, the reliability of the model was verified. The impacts of the changes of bus and subway fares on passengers′ choice of transportation modes were studied respectively by using the proposed NL model. The results show that with the increase of bus fares, the regular bus travelers will transfer to private cars for trip within the range of 0~10 km, while those above 10 km will choose subway travel. Besides, with the increase of subway fares, the share rate of subway travel mode is obviously reduced, and thus leads to the decrease of public transport share rate. By exploring the influence of the changes of public transportation fares on passengers′ choice of travel modes, this paper provides reasonable suggestions for the adjustment of public transportation fares in Beijing.

Key words: SP survey, travel mode choice, NL model, public transportation fare

CLC Number:

U491

YE Qian-wen, CHEN Xu-mei, BAI Xi-hong. Research on the impact of Beijing public transportation fare on travel modal choice based on NL model[J].Shandong Science, 2019, 32(2): 79-88.

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Research on the impact of Beijing public transportation fare on travel modal choice based on NL model

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