山东科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 111-116.doi: 10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2016.05.018

• 交通运输 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于前景理论的动态路径选择模型研究

史国琪1,贾富强2   

  1. 1.兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃 兰州 730070;2.兰州交通大学管理科学与工程重点学科建设基地,甘肃 兰州,730070
  • 收稿日期:2016-04-21 出版日期:2016-10-20 发布日期:2016-10-20

Prospect theory based dynamic route choice model

SHI Guoqi1,JIA Fuqiang2   

  1. 1.School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China;2. Key Disciplines Construction Base of Management Science and Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Received:2016-04-21 Online:2016-10-20 Published:2016-10-20

摘要:

在实际出行过程中受多种不确定因素的影响,导致出行者的路径选择行为往往是动态的。本文考虑出行者在路径选择过程中的有限理性以及路径改变方式,在前景理论的基础上建立了动态路径选择模型,提出了更适合人们思维习惯的动态路径选择方法。该方法允许出行者根据道路情况随时调整路径,并用实例验证了方法的正确性和适用性。结果表明,当出行者遇到拥堵路段时,可以在途中改变路径,并且在心理预期时间不能满足时,就会选择有风险的路径。

关键词: 路径改变方式, 动态路径选择, 参考点, 前景理论, 有限理性

Abstract:

Travelers often dynamically select their routes since their route choice behaviors are influenced by many uncertain factors in practical travel process. We establish a prospect theory based dynamic route choice model from bounded rationality and change on the way in route choice. We further present a dynamic route choice model more applicable to people thinking habit. It allows a traveler to dynamically adjust the route based on road situation. We also verify its correctness and applicability through practical instances. Results show that a traveler can change route on the way when he meets a congested road section. He will choose a risky route if his psychological expected time cannot be satisfied.

Key words: prospect theory, reference point, bounded rationality, dynamic route choice, change on the way

中图分类号: 

  • U239.5

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