关键词: 海洋新质生产力, 海洋经济, 评价指标体系, AHP-熵权法, 灰色系统模型

Abstract: New quality productive forces constitute the core driving force for high-quality development of the marine economy. Measuring the development of marine new quality productive forces is essential for evaluating the high-quality development of marine economy. This study elaborates on the theoretical connotation of marine new quality productive forces, constructs a corresponding evaluation index system, and employs the analytic hierarchy process—entropy weight combination weighting method and grey system model—to analyze and predict the development level of marine new quality productive forces in Shandong Province between 2011–2024 and the development trend between 2025–2029. The results indicate that: (1) the marine new quality productive forces in Shandong Province has undergone a three-stage evolution characterized by “steady climbing–accelerated growth–high-level adjustment,” where green productivity and innovative productivity serve as the core driving indicators, while open productivity is significantly affected by changes in the external environment; (2) compared with the other ten coastal provinces, Shandong Province ranked third in terms of average value during 2011–2024 and progressed to second place in 2024, maintaining an overall leading position. However, there is still a room for improvement in economic quality and efficiency as well as open productivity; (3) the prediction shows that the level of marine new quality productive forces in Shandong Province will continue to rise during 2025–2029, gradually shifting from medium–high-quality growth to high-quality growth. Based on these findings, policy recommenditions are proposed to promote the high-quality development of Shandong Province’s marine economy, focusing on innovation-driven development, green transformation, improvement of economic quality and efficiency, high-level opening up, shared prosperity, and improvements in public services.

Key words: Marine New Quality Productive Forces, Marine Economy, Evaluation index system, AHP-Entropy Weight Method, Grey System Model