关键词: 应急救灾, 纳什均衡, 期望收益, 逆行归纳法

Abstract: Based on the characteristics of emergency response and disaster relief for regional catastrophes, the three-party game model of central government, local government and disaster victims was set up. First, through the analysis of the interaction factors among the three parties, the probability function of disaster relief success was established, and the actual benefits of the success and failure of the disaster relief were obtained. Secondly, the participants' decision- making model was established through the analysis of the expected return after the success of the three-party disaster relief. The analysis results show that when the expected benefits of disaster relief of central government, local government and disaster victims were the largest, the input cost of three-party disaster relief was in equilibrium, and the optimal equilibrium solution could be obtained.

Key words: emergency response and disaster relief, Nash equilibrium, expected return, retrograde induction