基于集成算法的路段短时行驶时间预测

doi:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2018.04.018

SHANDONG SCIENCE ›› 2018, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 118-125.doi: 10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2018.04.018

• Tranfic and Transportation • Previous Articles Next Articles

Short term prediction of road travel time based on an ensemble algorithm

JIANG Yi-yue¹, DONG Shu-qian², ZHOU Shu-min¹

1.School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044, China; 2. School of Information and Communication Engineering, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China

Received:2017-11-10 Online:2018-08-20 Published:2018-08-20

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to better solve the short term prediction problem of travel time on links, a tree based ensemble method was proposed and improved. First, a more robust GBDT was established to reduce the disturbance caused by bursts aiming at the strong upheavals of traffic in a small time scale. Then, the RF and GBDT were fused and a new method for RF-GBDT was proposed to overcome the problem of bias-variance dilemma. In addition, various relevant variables derived from historical travel time data were considered to improve the interpretability of the model. The results of predictions show that compared with the single RF or GBDT, the RF-GBDT method is preferable in the accuracy and the stability of algorithms.

Key words: short term prediction, gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT), random forest (RF), ensemble, travel time

CLC Number:

U213.2

JIANG Yi-yue, DONG Shu-qian, ZHOU Shu-min. Short term prediction of road travel time based on an ensemble algorithm[J].SHANDONG SCIENCE, 2018, 31(4): 118-125.

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Short term prediction of road travel time based on an ensemble algorithm

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