京杭运河航运与沿河区域经济的互动关系研究

doi:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2022.04.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了研究内河航运发展与沿河区域经济和产业发展的相互影响关系,以苏北运河为例,采用灰色关联度计算模型和协整检验方法,对苏北运河与沿河区域经济和产业结构的关联性和长期均衡关系进行了初步探讨,并通过因果分析,进一步探究两者互动关系的影响方向,再通过向量自回归模型,深入剖析内河航运对沿河区域经济当前和未来的相互影响程度,最后选取沿河某产业园区分析实际互动效应。研究结果表明:苏北运河与沿河区域经济增长、第二产业发展存在长期均衡关系,苏北运河沿河区域第二产业对运河航运发展的支撑作用最大。内河航运满足了沿河产业发展货物运输需求,京杭运河黄河以北段复航能够实现与沿河区域经济和产业相互促进的良性循环模式。本研究有利于释放沿运河区域经济发展潜力,为京杭运河黄河以北段及沿河区域规划设计提供参考。

关键词: 京杭运河, 内河航运, 区域经济, 灰色关联度, 协同性

Abstract:

To study the interactions between the development of inland navigation, the waterfront regional economy, and industrial development as exemplified by the Subei Canal, this study used the gray correlation degree calculation and cointegration test methods to discuss the correlation and long-run equilibrium relationship between the Subei Canal, the regional economy, and industrial structure along the waterways. Further, it explores the direction of the influence of their interactions through causal analysis, studying the current and future degree of mutual influence of inland navigation on the waterfront regional economy by way of vector autoregression. Finally, an industrial park along the waterways was selected to analyze the actual interaction effects. The findings reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Subei Canal and the economic growth and development of the secondary industry in the waterway region. The secondary industry in the area along the Subei Canal is the most supportive of the development of canal shipping. Inland shipping meets industrial demands for cargo transportation. The resumption of navigation on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal(north of the Yellow River)can achieve a virtuous circle that promotes both the economy and industry of the waterfront area. This research is beneficial to unlock the potential of regional economic development along the canal. It provides a reference for the planning and design of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal(north of the Yellow River)and the area along the waterways.

Key words: Beijing-Hangzhou Canal, inland waterway transport, regional economy, gray degree, synergy

中图分类号:

陈乾阳, 董思远, 朱小磊. 京杭运河航运与沿河区域经济的互动关系研究[J]. 山东科学, 2022, 35(4): 126-135.

CHEN Qian-yang, DONG Si-yuan, ZHU Xiao-lei. Interactions between shipping on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal and the waterfront regional economy[J]. Shandong Science, 2022, 35(4): 126-135.

图/表 12

图1

图2

表1

表2

图3

表3

表4

表5

表6

表7

图4

图5

指标	检验类型(常数项,趋势项)	ADF统计量	P值	检验结果
ln G	(c,t)	-1.658 8	0.741 5	不平稳
ln X₁	(c,0)	-1.647 8	0.445 3	不平稳
ln X₂	(0,0)	1.395 7	0.955 3	不平稳
ln X₃	(c,0)	-1.147 6	0.680 1	不平稳
ln T	(c,0)	-1.828 1	0.359 0	不平稳

指标	检验类型(常数项,趋势项)	ADF统计量	1%临界值	检验结果
Dln G	(c,0)	-4.705 2^***	-3.711 5	ln G~ I(1)
Dln X₁	(c,0)	-7.277 0^***	-3.711 5	ln X₁~ I(1)
Dln X₂	(c,0)	-8.107 7^***	-3.711 5	ln X₂~ I(1)
Dln X₃	(c,0)	-5.327 4^***	-3.724 1	ln X₃~ I(1)
Dln T	(c,0)	-7.422 0^***	-3.724 1	ln T ~ I(1)

指标	滞后阶数	对数似然值	似然比	最终预测误差	AIC	SC	HQ
Dln T与Dln G	1	69.684 7	—	1.79×10^-5*	-5.254 8^*	-5.059 8^*	-5.200 7^*
	2	71.593 9	3.207 4	2.13×10^-5	-5.087 5	-4.697 5	-4.979 3
ln T与ln X₂	1	71.057 4	—	1.97×10^-5*	-5.158 3^*	-4.964 7^*	-5.102 5^*
	2	73.780 6	4.608 5	2.19×10^-5	-5.060 1	-4.672 9	-4.948 6

指标	假设	特征值	检验统计值	5%临界值	概率值
Dln T	None^*	0.726 0	45.272 3	15.494 7	0.000 0
Dln G	At most 1^*	0.403 3	12.908 7	3.841 5	0.000 3
ln T	None^*	0.634 0	21.609 2	15.494 7	0.005 3
ln X₂	At most 1	0.123 9	2.513 3	3.841 5	0.112 9

零假设	最优滞后期	F统计值	P值
ln G不是ln T的格兰杰原因	1	3.230 2	0.084 9
ln T不是ln G的格兰杰原因	1	8.463 7	0.007 7
ln X₂不是ln T的格兰杰原因	1	10.35 7	0.005 0
ln T不是ln X₂的格兰杰原因	1	0.024 3	0.878 0