关键词: 交通承载力, 时间序列分析, 多元回归分析

Abstract:

The essentials  that cause traffic congestion, environmental pollution and resource deficiency lie in too rapid vehicle increase which even exceeds traffic carrying capacity. We employ multivariate analysis to analyze the key factors impacting vehicle number. We also construct a time series prediction model for every key factor, and employ multiple regression analysis to predict vehicle number. We further establish a quantitative calculation model to determine urban traffic carrying capacity based on the analysis of key factors of traffic carrying capacity. The number of motor vehicle will exceed Beijing traffic carrying capacity after 2010 based on the calculation of the present data, and the vehicle growth rate will exceed that of traffic carrying capacity. Some relevant specifications therefore must be drawn to restrict the increase in vehicle number.

Key words: traffic carrying capacity, analysis of time series, multiple regression analysis