关键词: 京杭运河, 内河航运, 区域经济, 灰色关联度, 协同性

Abstract:

To study the interactions between the development of inland navigation, the waterfront regional economy, and industrial development as exemplified by the Subei Canal, this study used the gray correlation degree calculation and cointegration test methods to discuss the correlation and long-run equilibrium relationship between the Subei Canal, the regional economy, and industrial structure along the waterways. Further, it explores the direction of the influence of their interactions through causal analysis, studying the current and future degree of mutual influence of inland navigation on the waterfront regional economy by way of vector autoregression. Finally, an industrial park along the waterways was selected to analyze the actual interaction effects. The findings reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Subei Canal and the economic growth and development of the secondary industry in the waterway region. The secondary industry in the area along the Subei Canal is the most supportive of the development of canal shipping. Inland shipping meets industrial demands for cargo transportation. The resumption of navigation on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal(north of the Yellow River)can achieve a virtuous circle that promotes both the economy and industry of the waterfront area. This research is beneficial to unlock the potential of regional economic development along the canal. It provides a reference for the planning and design of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal(north of the Yellow River)and the area along the waterways.

Key words: Beijing-Hangzhou Canal, inland waterway transport, regional economy, gray degree, synergy