关键词: 黄河流域, 绿色低碳, 数字经济, 耦合协调, 障碍度, 灰度预测

Abstract:

The nine provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River are important supporting regions for the economic and social development of China. The coordinated advancement of their green low-carbon and digital economies holds strategic significance for China to achieve its “dual-carbon” goals and high-quality economic development. Considering the nine provinces(autonomous regions) along the Yellow River from 2013 to 2022 as the research object, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the digital economy and green low-carbon systems from six dimensions: resource consumption, pollution emissions, governance effectiveness, communication capabilities, the Internet, and the information industry. The spatiotemporal coupling relationship and obstacle factors between the two were analyzed using entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, obstacle degree model, and gray prediction. The results demonstrated that the green low-carbon level of the nine provinces(autonomous regions) along the Yellow River has significantly improved, following a spatial pattern of “upper reaches green low-carbon level<lower reaches green low-carbon level<middle reaches green low-carbon level”. The evaluation indices of the digital economy systems exhibit regional imbalances, showing a gradually increasing trend from top to bottom. The coupling coordination degree of the digital economy and green low-carbon systems as a whole shows a steady upward trend, and the overall state of the nine provinces(autonomous regions) along the Yellow River has changed from being on the verge of disorder to an initially coordinated state. The information industry is the main obstacle to coupling coordination. The insufficient development of the digital information industry in the Yellow River Basin severely hinders the coordinated development of the digital economy and green low-carbon systems in these provinces(autonomous regions). Gray prediction analysis suggests that the coupling state of the digital economy and green low-carbon systems in the nine provinces(autonomous regions) along the Yellow River from 2025 to 2029 will steadily improve to an intermediate coordination level. On the basis of the research results, targeted suggestions are put forward to promote the coupling coordination of the green low-carbon systems and digital economy in the nine provinces(autonomous regions) along the Yellow River for them to advance to a higher stage of development. These insights provide a scientific basis and decision-making reference for the sustainable development of the region.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, green low-carbon, digital economy, coupling coordination, obstacle degree, gray prediction