关键词: 城市小汽车, 燃油消耗, 系统动力学, 预测模型

Abstract:

       Correct prediction of fuel consumption of urban cars has great significance to scientifically evaluate urban traffic environment pollution and even to formulate the relevant policies. This paper constructs the causal diagram and system flow chart of urban car fuel consumption with the theory and method of system dynamics. We quantify the factors influencing fuel consumption and present a predictive model. We eventually analyze fuel consumption of Beijing as a concrete example and verify its correctness with simulation software, Vensim.

Key words: urban car, fuel consumption, system dynamics, predictive model