青藏高原山地区碳储量时空演变与预测—以黄河源区为例

doi:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.2025031

收稿日期：2025-03-26

作者简介：李珊（2004—），女，本科生，研究方向为土地利用模拟与碳储量估算。E-mail：2243206000387@ynnu.edu.cn

^*通信作者，陈旭（1973—），男，副教授，研究方向为生态环境遥感。E-mail：chenxu@ynnu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 土地利用变化作为陆地生态系统碳循环的核心驱动因素，科学评估其关系对碳平衡与可持续发展至关重要。基于青藏高原山地区中的黄河源区2000—2020年土地利用变化规律，耦合CA-Markov-InVEST-OPGD模型，揭示了土地覆被变化与碳储量的时空演变格局及碳储量的驱动机制，并预测和分析2030年黄河源区自然变化情景下碳储量的变化特征。结果表明：2000—2020年黄河源区的草地减少，未利用地和水域扩大，碳储量整体下降，高值区向西北集中。NDVI、高程和温度是黄河源区碳储量的主要驱动因子，其中，NDVI与温度、降水及人口密度的交互作用最显著。2030年黄河源区自然变化情景下的草地面积持续减少，水域面积显著增加；东部和南部碳储量明显下降，西部和北部部分区域显著上升；整体碳储量空间集聚趋势趋缓，局部呈现显著增减变化，应积极加强草地生态保护与修复，提升碳汇能力，促进区域碳平衡。

关键词: 青藏高原山地区, 土地利用变化, 碳储量, CA-Markov-InVEST-OPGD模型

Abstract: Land-use change, as a key driving force of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, plays a critical role in assessing carbon balance and promoting sustainable development. Based on the land-use change patterns in the source region of the Yellow River in the mountainous areas of the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2020, this study developed an integrated CA-Markov-InVEST-OPGD model to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of land cover and carbon storage, analyze the driving mechanism of carbon-storage changes, and predict the characteristics of carbon storage changes in a natural change scenario in the source region of the Yellow River in 2030. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, grasslands in the source region of the Yellow River declined, while unused land and water areas expanded, leading to an overall reduction in carbon storage, with high-value areas shifting toward the northwest. NDVI, elevation, and temperature were the main factors affecting carbon storage in the region, with NDVI interacting most significantly with temperature, precipitation, and population density. In the natural change scenario in 2030, the grassland area will continue to shrink while the water area will increase significantly. Carbon storage in the east and south will decline significantly, while carbon storage in some areas in the west and north will increase significantly. The overall spatial concentration of carbon storage will tend to decrease, with notable local increases and decreases. Therefore, it is essential to undertake grassland ecological protection and restoration efforts to enhance carbon sink capacity and promote regional carbon balance.

Key words: mountainous areas of the Tibetan Plateau, land use changes, carbon storage, CA-Markov-InVEST-OPGD model

中图分类号:

X144

李珊, 申恩庭, 孟应鹏, 陈旭. 青藏高原山地区碳储量时空演变与预测—以黄河源区为例 [J]. 山东科学, 0, (): 1-.

LI Shan, SHEN Enting, MENG Yingpeng, CHEN Xu. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in the mountainous areas of the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of the source region of the Yellow River [J]. Shandong Science, 0, (): 1-.

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