关键词: 中长途高速客运, 方式分担率, 混合Logit模型, 面板数据, 高铁, 民航

Abstract:

To solve the problem of mode share change of high-speed railways and civil aviation in middle-and-long distance passenger transport, taking the heterogeneity among passenger groups and the relevance of passenger choices in different scenarios into consideration, the Panel Mixed Logit(PML) model was established, which taking gender, age, and monthly income of passengers as basic property, the cost and time before ,after and during the trip as specific property. NLOGIT was used to estimate the parameters of Traditional Logit, Cross-sectional Mixed Logit, and Panel Mixed Logit models based on the stated preference data of passenger in Beijing-Nanjing transport corridor. Model estimation results show that the PML model has better behavior interpretation capabilities and prediction accuracy. Based on PML model, the simulation method was used to predict the trend of mode share of high-speed railways and civil aviation along with the changes of trip cost and time. The results show that the high-speed railways mode share ratio increases with the increase of trip cost difference value and decreases with the increase of trip time difference value; which is the opposite for civil aviation. It also shows that the trip cost difference value has a more significant effect on the mode share than the trip time difference value.

Key words: middle-and-long distance high-speed passenger transport, mode share ratio, mixed logit model, panel data, high-speed railways, civil aviation